Geopolitical scenarios for an institutional investor
Client type
Global institutional investor
Focus
Scenario analysis | Geoeconomic foresight | Infrastructure investment strategy
Impact
Strategic framework to stress-test portfolio and identify resilient opportunities
CHALLENGE
A major investor managing infrastructure, energy and logistics assets needed to anticipate how escalating geopolitical competition would reshape its long-term returns. The client required a structured foresight framework to translate global uncertainty - from US-China rivalry to supply chain fragmentation - into actionable investment insight.
GRASP’S APPROACH
GRASP worked with the investor’s strategy and economics teams to design scenario-based analysis of the coming decade, and model two future pathways.
Each scenario was mapped across key sectors — digital infrastructure, transport, energy, and defence — identifying sectoral risks, inflationary pressures, and emerging opportunities.
IMPACT
The analysis became a strategic reference for the firm’s global strategy planning, shaping its investment theses and discussions with government partners.
GRASP’s work enabled the client to integrate geopolitics into portfolio design and strengthen its positioning as a forward-looking investor in an era of economic fragmentation.
